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Atlantic Resolve mission pushes beyond Baltics into Romania
SMARDAN TRAINING AREA, Romania — Almost 200 U.S. paratroops dropped into Romania on Tuesday and were joined by a ground force of cavalrymen, marking the official expansion into southeastern Europe of a campaign to reassure allies worried about Russia’s intentions.
For almost a year now, U.S. troops have maintained a constant presence in the Baltic states and Poland in response to Russia’ seizure of Ukrainian territory. Now, Operation Atlantic Resolve is moving south, with a series of exercises slated to take place in Romania, Bulgaria — another NATO ally — and the Republic of Georgia, an aspiring NATO member.
“Today marks the beginning of Atlantic Response South,” said Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army Europe, as soldiers with the Vicenza, Italy-based 173rd Airborne Brigade parachuted onto the training grounds in eastern Romania.
Tuesday’s training exercise, which brought together troops from the 173rd with soldiers from the Vilseck, Germany-based 2nd Cavalry Regiment, is the beginning of what is expected to be a steady Army presence in the strategic Black Sea region, Hodges said.
Another major exercise, expected to start in May, will send U.S. troops across the Black Sea by ferry to train with Georgian troops.
Meanwhile, the mission on Tuesday, which included Romanian forces and was part of the Saber Junction exercise, was a test of the U.S. Army’s ability to conduct quick-response missions, traveling long distances on short notice.
As Russia conducts snap exercises across its territory and moves large forces on short notice around the country, it is important for the U.S. and its allies to demonstrate their own capabilities, Hodges said.
“This shows we can do this, too,” Hodges said.
On Tuesday, paratroops flew into Romania from Italy, parachuting into Smardan Training Area, where their task was to retake an airfield captured by a fictional enemy.
Meanwhile, troops with the 2nd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment, convoyed three hours from Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, bringing about 20 Stryker vehicles with them. The task of the day was for the troops to gain control of the battlefield, with the 2nd Cavalry holding the territory.
While the 173rd will rotate back home in a few days, troops with the 2nd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry, will stay on in Smardan for about a month, working alongside their Romanian counterparts, soldiers said.
Sgt. Jordan Wright, 25, a member of the 2nd Squadron, said he expects the conditions during the next month on the Romanian training site to be austere but beneficial.
“I think it’s going to build a stronger relationship,” said Wright. “This is definitely a mission that feels good to be a part of and show commitment to our allies.”
The increased U.S. presence across the Baltics and into the Black Sea region comes amid concerns over Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and, more recently, saber rattling in connection with U.S. and NATO missile defense plans in Europe.
Those plans include Romania. In recent days, Russian officials have also threatened that Denmark would be subject to nuclear targeting if it joined the missile defense effort.
For Hodges, such rhetoric is cause for worry and underscores the need to bolster readiness.
“Only Russia talks about using nuclear weapons. Only Russia threatens nuclear strike,” Hodges said. “I think it is reckless language.”
With U.S. troops arriving by air and land in Romania on Tuesday, the Army was able to show it can move forces quickly in response to a crisis, Hodges said.
“That’s a big, long move that the Army has to be able to do,” Hodges said. “That’s just about the ultimate reassurance.”
Canadian frigate to join exercises in the Black Sea
NEWPORT, Wales – A Canadian warship will sail into the Black Sea in the coming days to take part in a multi-lateral exercise with Ukrainian, U.S. and other vessels.
HMCS Toronto, a Halifax-class frigate, will enter the Black Sea on Sept. 6 to begin the exercise starting on Sept. 8, military officials at the NATO summit here said Thursday.
The focus of the exercise, called Sea Breeze, is on interoperability, they added.
The U.S. and Ukraine are leading the exercise, with NATO participation. Fourteen warships are involved.
Military officials said that Sea Breeze is a long-standing exercise and is not being conducted in response to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
But the exercise comes a little more than a week after Ukrainian rebels opened fire on a Ukraine navy ship in the Azov Sea.
Ukraine said one of its naval patrol vessels came under artillery attack by pro-Russian rebels from from the shore.
In addition to Sea Breeze, about 100 Canadian soldiers are currently taking part in a NATO exercise called Steadfast Javelin 2. That is being conducted in Poland and the Baltic States.
Another exercise, Rapid Trident, will take place starting Sept. 11 in Ukraine. Only 13 Canadian military personnel will take part in that.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper is scheduled to attend a series of bilateral meetings Thursday with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and NATO officials.
Harper will also attend a meeting on Afghanistan in which he will reiterate Canada’s commitment to continue to assist that country. Canada is not providing troops for future missions to Afghanistan but will provide financial and aid support.
Plunging Energy Prices And The Ukraine Crisis Killed Russia’s $40 Billion Gas Pipeline Project
SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) – Russia’s $40 billion South Stream gas pipeline project has fallen victim to plunging energy prices, stalling European demand and the political standoff between the European Union and Moscow over the crisis in Ukraine.
Russia on Monday said it had scrapped the project to supply gas to Europe without crossing Ukraine, citing EU objections, and named Turkey as its preferred partner.
South Stream planned to supply 63 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas a year, equivalent to more than 10 percent of European demand, from Russia via the Black Sea into the EU toward the end of this decade, cementing Russia’s role as the region’s dominant supplier.
But it came under increasing fire this year. The crisis over Ukraine led to Brussels freezing its approval process, and the pipeline also hit trouble over weak European gas demand and energy prices, undermining its economics.
“I think the likelihood of South Stream being built is now is close to zero,” said Pierre Noel, senior fellow for economic and energy security for International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
South Stream would need to be marketed at an equivalent of $9.50-$11.50 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu), including a 30 percent export duty, estimates have shown. The average European spot gas prices have ranged between $6-$9 per mmBtu this year.
“Decreasing oil-indexed prices for gas and lower sales are likely to drive Gazprom to the red this year,” said Mikhail Korchemkin of East European Gas Analysis, forcing the firm to reduce its investment program.
Russian state-controlled Gazprom sells most of its gas under oil-linked contracts. With oil prices tumbling 40 percent since June and European gas demand down 10 percent since 2010, Gazprom’s gas revenues have plunged.
“Cancellation of the project can reduce Gazprom’s negative cash flow in 2014-2017”, Korchemkin added.
Gazprom meets almost a third of Europe’s demand, which in turn makes up 80 percent of its revenues.
“It (scrapping South Stream) reflects internal Russian pressure on where it is going to invest limited resources at a point in time when sanctions are hitting,” said Carlos Pascual, a fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, referring to Western sanctions over Ukraine.
“It’s harder, more expensive to access capital and the fastest growing gas markets in the world are in Asia, and Russia has virtually no export capacity to the Asian market,” he added.
IS IT REALLY DEAD?
The announcement on scrapping South Stream came during a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Gazprom chief executive, Alexei Miller, to Turkey, during which Putin proposed building it to Turkey instead, offering its gas at a discount.
“I don’t think Putin is bluffing. I think he’s really adapting to a fundamentally new geopolitical situation in Europe,” the IISS’ Noel said.
Yet the notion of running South Stream to non-EU member Turkey is not new and is seen by some as a political ploy by Russia to win the support of those EU members in favor of the pipeline.
South Stream exposed cracks in EU strategy as Hungary, Austria, Serbia and Bulgaria among others saw it as a solution to the risk of supply disruptions via Ukraine, which have occurred three times during the last decade. Brussels, on the other hand, saw it as entrenching Moscow’s energy stranglehold on Europe.
“The alternative to Turkey is even more doubtful than the direct option to Europe,” one financial adviser who has dealt with the matter said on condition of anonymity.
The gas discount offered to Turkey casts further doubt over a project that was already economically doubtful, and would be far too big for Turkey alone to receive all the gas, supplying four times its annual demand.
“Even if it went to Turkey, most of its gas would end up in Europe, so it begs the question why introduce a transit risk instead of attempting to solve Russia-EU differences and run it directly to Europe as initially planned,” the adviser added.
Nato commander warns Russia could control whole Black Sea
Nato’s top military commander, Gen Philip Breedlove, has warned that Russian “militarisation” of the annexed Crimea Peninsula could be used to exert control over the whole Black Sea.
Speaking in Kiev, Gen Breedlove said Russian military assets being installed in Crimea would have an effect on “almost the entire Black Sea”.
Mr Breedlove is in Ukraine for high-level talks with Ukrainian leaders.
Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in March 2014.
Russia’s defence ministry said on Wednesday that it had deployed a batch of 14 military jets to Crimea, as part of a squadron of 30 that will be stationed on the peninsula.
An initial batch of fighter jets were flown to Crimea’s Belbek air base “from military air bases in Krasnodar Territory,” Russian agency Interfax reported.
Gen Breedlove had said earlier on Tuesday that a large number of Russian troops were also active inside Ukraine, training and advising separatist rebels.
Russia has continued to deny allegations from western countries that it played any direct role in the conflict in Ukraine, which has claimed more than 4,317 lives.
President Vladimir Putin said that Russia “poses no threat to anyone” and would “resist efforts to draw it into geopolitical intrigue,” Russia’s Tass news agency reported on Wednesday.
Angela Merkel held a four hour meeting with Mr Putin this month on the Ukrainian crisis
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel launched a strong attack on Russia’s actions against Ukraine whilst addressing a session of parliament in Berlin.
“Nothing justifies or excuses the annexation of Crimea by Russia… Nothing justifies the direct or indirect participation of Russia in the fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk,” she said, speaking in the Bundestag.
“Russia is calling into question Europe’s peaceful order and it is trampling on international law.”
She added that the possibility of a lasting ceasefire in eastern Ukraine was unlikely and therefore continued economic sanctions on Russia remained “unavoidable”.
The US and the EU have placed sanctions on Russia for its alleged involvement in the Ukrainian crisis.
Human cost of conflict in east Ukraine
Mourners at the funeral on 7 November of two schoolboys killed by shelling in Donetsk, Andrei Yeliseyev (18) and Daniil Kuznetsov (14)4,317 deaths since April – 957 of them since the 5 September ceasefire, and 9,921 people wounded
466,829 internally displaced people within Ukraine
454,339 refugees living abroad, 387,355 of them in Russia
UN data from 18 November
Here Are The 200 ‘Sky Soldiers’ The US Is Sending To Military Exercises In Ukraine
The Pentagon announced Wednesday the U.S. Army will be sending 200 paratroopers from the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team to Ukraine. The paratroopers from the 173rd, known as “Sky Soldiers,” will participate in a joint military exercise, Rapid Trident, against Russia’s objections.
Russia had warned against any NATO exercises in Ukraine, which is facing a Russian invasion of its eastern borders in support of pro-Moscow separatists. Although Putin’s overall goal isn’t clear, it appears Russian and separatist forces are marching on the Ukrainian city of Mariupol to create an overland route to Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed in March.
The Sky Soldiers will participate in the Exercise Rapid Trident alongside 1,300 other soldiers from a wide swath of countries, including Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Ukraine, and a host of NATO states.
Exercise Rapid Trident will take place from Sept. 15-26 at a training center near Yavoriv, Ukraine.
Paratroopers of the 173rd Airborne Brigade of the U.S. Army in Europe take part in the “Black Arrow” military exercise in Rukla, May 14, 2014
During Exercise Rapid Trident, the 173rd will help focus on mine clearing, patrolling, and convoy defense training alongside soldiers from 14 other countries and NATO representatives.
The 173rd Airborne are based out of Vicenza, Italy, and have taken part in a number of military exercises recently.
In May, the 173rd participated in a training exercise in Rukla, Lithuania.
Paratroopers of the 173rd Airborne Brigade of the U.S. Army in Europe take part in military exercise “Black Arrow” in Rukla, Lithuania, on May 14, 2014.
In April, the 173rd Sky Soldiers also took part in an unscheduled training exercise in Poland.
A Humvee of the U.S. Army’s 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team is parachuted during the NATO-led exercise “Orzel Alert” held together with Canada’s 3rd Battalion and Princess Patricia’s Light Infantry, and Poland’s 6th Airborne Brigade in Bledowska Desert in Chechlo, near Olkusz, south Poland May 5, 2014.
Four paratrooper companies of the 173rd have been deployed to Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in a move to reassure NATO allies against possible Russian aggression.
Troops from the U.S. Army’s 173rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team parachute from a Boeing C-17 Globemaster III during a NATO-led exercise “Orzel Alert” held together with Canada’s 3rd Battalion and Princess Patricia’s Light Infantry, and Poland’s 6th Airborne Brigade in Bledowska Desert in Chechlo, near Olkusz, south Poland May 5, 2014.Ukraine signs oil, gas deal with Eni and EDF, sees $4 billion investment
Ukraine signs oil, gas deal with Eni and EDF, sees $4 billion investment
Ukraine signed an offshore oil and gas production-sharing agreement with Italian group Eni (ENI.MI) and France’s EDF (EDF.PA) on Wednesday and Kiev’s energy minister estimated the project could draw up to $4 billion of investment.
The scheme to explore for oil and gas on the western Black Sea’s shallow shelf could provide Ukraine with up to 3 million tonnes of oil a year, Energy Minister Eduard Stavytsky was quoted as saying by Ukrainian news agency UNIAN.
The former Soviet republic consumes around 5 million tonnes of oil per year, including 1.5 million tonnes of imports that are mostly from Russia.
The UNIAN report gave no details on expectations for gas production.
Eni said in a statement the agreement signed on Wednesday concerned a 1,400 square-km area in waters off Western Crimea. The area includes the Subbotina oil license as well as the Pry Kerch block where several oil and gas prospects have been identified.
Eni, which already has a shale gas deal in Ukraine, said it would be the operator in the venture with a stake of 50 percent.
How ExxonMobil Corp. Could Be Affected by Russia’s Move Into Ukraine
The world is obviously waiting raptly for an indication of the next occurrence in the chaos gripping Ukraine. Even with Russia potentially backing down in what has become something of a geopolitical circus, more than a few investors may not have considered that one company in articular, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), could be affected severely by an increasingly contentious relationship between Russia and its now topsy-turvy onetime satellite.
You know, of course, that nearly three years ago Exxon and Russia’s giant state-controlled oil company Rosneft OAO carved out a deal to work together exploring the potentially prolific Russian Arctic. Also included were plans for the two companies to engage in joint operations in the Western Siberia shale and the Black Sea.
Big money for a huge deal
The original deal was to include an initial expenditure of $3.2 billion just to explore the Kara Sea in the frigid Arctic. Also part of the agreement was the granting of rights to Rosneft for stakes in a portion of ExxonMobil’s U.S. shale plays. And in a separate agreement, the Russian company received a 25% interest in Exxon’s Point Thomson Project, a natural gas venture in Alaska.
It won’t surprise you to know that Russian authorities have a history of not playing fairly with others. Exxon has for years overseen the Sakhalin-1 project on the country’s island of the same name. The desolate 500-mile swath of land is located in the Sea of Okhotsk, east of the country.
Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-B) was once the operator of Sakhalin-2, a similar effort on the island. But after spending $20 billion of its own money, the company was forced to sell half its interest in the project to Gazprom, the massive state gas company, for a bargain-basement price.
Hardly a lingering love affair
Beyond that, Exxon’s relationship with Russia’s leaders has hardly been consistently amicable. In the spring of 2007, The Wall Street Journal reported in a lead article that the company’s relationship with the Russian government was becoming progressively more contentious. During his company’s annual meeting the same year, ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson stated openly that the big Texas-based company would require more clarity about how the Russian government would treat foreign companies before Exxon would undertake more projects there.
But Exxon isn’t the only major integrated oil company that could be affected by increased contretemps between Russia on the one hand and Europe and the U.S. on the other. Last year, after participating for a decade in TNK-BP, a challenging 50-50 joint venture with a group of Russian oligarchs, BP and the Russians both sold their interests in the venture to Rosneft for a $55 billion total. BP came away with $16.65 billion in cash and a nearly 20% interest in Rosneft. I wouldn’t be at all surprised, however, were BP eventually to be squeezed out of its stake for a thin sliver of its actual value.
Threatening Big Oil’s Ukraine plans
There also is a group of western companies preparing to begin exploratory drilling in Ukraine, an effort being undertaken with an eye toward reducing the country’s dependence on Russian gas. Those plans obviously would be threatened by a Russian takeover of its neighbor.
For instance, Shell’s docket for the year includes the drilling of 15 appraisal wells in eastern Ukraine’s Yuzivska field. That effort is slated to cost a not-inconsequential $10 billion. And Chevron (NYSE: CVX) , the second-largest U.S. oil company, is prepared to spend about $400 million to begin operations in Ukraine’s Oleska shale formation.
Even Exxon was ready to ink an agreement for drilling in the Skifska area of Ukraine’s portion of the Black Sea. That now-tabled effort was to have involved a pair of offshore wells to be drilled at a total cost of about $735 million.
Foolish takeaway
There’s lots more that could be said about the possible impact of an expanded Russian incursion into Ukraine. Clearly, such a movement would also have a substantial bearing on global crude (and perhaps natural gas) prices. But for now I urge Fools in general — and especially those with a taste for energy — to keep a close eye on the progression of events in both Ukraine and Russia.
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Russia Prepared To Fight War Over Ukraine, Senior Government Official Admits
“If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war,” warns a senior Russian government official. The FT reports Russia is prepared to fight a war over the Ukrainian territory of Crimea (where the largest ethnic Russian population lives and they have a military base). Conjuring images of the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, the official told the FT, “they will lose Crimea first [because] we will go in and protect [it], just as we did in Georgia.” The Kremlin regards the Georgian conflict as the biggest stand-off between Russia and the west since the end of the Cold War and it has fed determination in Moscow to push back against what it believes to be western attempts to contain Russia.
“If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war,” the official said. “They will lose Crimea first [because] we will go in and protect [it], just as we did in Georgia.” In August 2008, Russian troops invaded Georgia after the Georgian military launched a surprise attack on the separatist region of South Ossetia in an effort to establish its dominance over the republic.
The brief conflict with Georgia pitted Russia indirectly against the US and Nato, which had earlier tried to put Georgia on a path to Nato membership. The Kremlin regards the Georgian conflict as the biggest stand-off between Russia and the west since the end of the Cold War and it has fed determination in Moscow to push back against what it believes to be western attempts to contain Russia.
The warning of a similar scenario comes because Ukraine’s civil conflict has fanned tension in Crimea. On the peninsula, located on the northern coast of the Black Sea where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is stationed, ethnic Russians make up almost 60 per cent of the population, with Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars accounting for the rest.
Volodymyr Konstantinov, speaker of Crimea’s parliament, said on Thursday that the region might try to secede from Ukraine if the country split. “It is possible, if the country breaks apart,” he told the Russian news agency Interfax. “And everything is moving towards that.” Russian media also quoted him as saying Crimeans might turn to Russia for protection.
The Kremlin has been eager to stress that it is not interfering in Ukraine.
However, many government officials say in private that Ukraine falls inside Russia’s sphere of influence. “We will not allow Europe and the US to take Ukraine from us. The states of the former Soviet Union, we are one family,” said a foreign policy official. “They think Russia is still as weak as in the early 1990s but we are not.”
So while some suggest the “agreement” today is great news, we suspect it solves absolutely nothing as the corruption at the core remains and the push-pull of East-West tensions remains as the only thing that matters – it sadly appears – is who controls the pipelines.
‘Putin’s Games’ Sheds Light On Corruption, Abuse In Sochi
A documentary detailing the irregularities marring the run-up to next year’s Sochi Olympics premieres in Russia this week, in defiance of what its makers say were attempts by Moscow authorities to block the film.
“Putin’s Games” offers a rare glimpse into the pervasive corruption, rights abuses, and environmental damage that critics say has pervaded the Black Sea resort as Russia scrambles to prepare it for the Winter Games in February 2014.
Producer Simone Baumann says she was approached on three occasions by Russians proposing to buy the controversial film. Baumann, who has refused to enter into negotiations, claims to have turned down lucrative offers not to show the film.
“I was not surprised by these requests,” Baumann says. “I spend a lot of time in Russia and the notion that money buys everything infuriates me.”
“Putin’s Games,” a co-production between Germany, Austria, and Israel, premiered on November 23 at Amsterdam’s prestigious International Documentary Film Festival. It will be screened to a Russian audience on December 6 at Moscow’s ArtDocFest festival.
Bauman and Tel Aviv-based director Aleksandr Gentelev spent two years researching and filming “Putin’s Games.” The result is an epic account of life in pre-Olympic Sochi, with all the infrastructural, rights, and environmental problems surrounding Russia’s bid to host the event.
‘You Will Be Soaked In Blood’
The film features Valery Morozov, a Russian construction magnate who fled the country with his family after denouncing routine bribery and intimidation by officials overseeing Sochi’s giant building site. Topping $50 billion in state and private investment, the Sochi Games will be by far the most expensive Olympics in history.
Morozov says Russian officials asked him for kickbacks that went as high as 50 percent of construction costs. The contracting firms that refuse to cough up the cash, he claims, face chilling threats.
“We received explicit threats: ”You will be soaked in blood, you will drown in blood,’ etc. The hints were very straightforward,” Morozov says. “We know the story. Russia generally doesn’t care much for human life.”
Riled by the massive bribe-taking that threatened to bankrupt his business, Morozov chose to testify against officials who had attempted to extort him. He eventually fled to London in December 2011 after the Russian authorities launched a major tax investigation into his business in what he describes as retaliation.
‘Truly A Disaster For Us’
“Putin’s Games” also highlights the environmental damage resulting from unbridled construction in and around Sochi.
One of the biggest concerns are the vast landfills that dot the city despite Russia’s “zero waste” Olympic pledge and that, according to ecologists, could be contaminating Sochi’s water supplies.
Konstantin Tsybko, chairman of the pan-Russian nature conservation society, told the filmmakers: “It’s a catastrophic situation, it’s impossible to live there. We’ve had a look, it’s simply impossible to live within 2 kilometers of these landfills. But there are homes there, people have been living there historically.”
Aleksei Kravets rummages through belongings he saved from his house after being forcibly evicted in the course of construction work ahead of the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi.
Disgruntled Sochi residents feature prominently in “Putin’s Games.” There’s the motorist venting his anger at building companies for causing hellish road traffic as well as daily water and electricity cuts in his apartment building.
Erdogan blames outside forces for Turkish corruption scandal
Erdogan warns diplomats against ‘provocative acts’
The political crisis shaking Turkey spilled over into the country’s ties with the rest of the world on Saturday, as Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed outside forces for the country’s worst corruption scandal for years and appeared to threaten the US ambassador.
Speaking at a rally at the Black Sea town of Samsun, the prime minister attributed the investigation into the scandal – which involves allegations of millions of dollars of bribes, smuggling, the fixing of tenders and illegal construction – to a plot “with international dimensions” against his government.
Sixteen people were formally taken into pre-trial detention on Saturday – including the sons of the country’s interior and economy ministers and the chief executive of Halkbank, a state-owned bank – while others were released from police custody pending trial.
On a day when several pro-government papers prominently accused Francis Ricciardone, US Ambassador to Turkey, of involvement in the corruption probe, Mr Erdogan warned “foreign ambassadors” against meddling.
“Very strangely, ambassadors have become involved in some provocative acts in recent days,” Mr Erdogan said. “I am calling on them here: do your job . . . We do not have to keep you in our country.”
“The US is in no way involved in the ongoing corruption and bribery operation,” the US Embassy said. “Nobody should put Turkey-US relations in danger with unfounded claims.”
Turkey’s relations with the US hit a peak in 2009, when President Barack Obama praised the “model partnership” between the two countries.
But ties have become tense with differences over Egypt, where Mr Erdogan called for the West to denounce the coup against former President Mohamed Morsi, Syria, where the Turkish prime minister wanted a Kosovo-style campaign against President Bashar al-Assad and Washington’s concerns about the Turkish government’s crackdown on mass protests.
Mr Erdogan has sought to rally his base as he faces some of the biggest political challenges of his rule ahead of important elections next year including a contest for control of Istanbul and the country’s first direct vote for president.
“I presume this will work with Erdogan’s core constituency,” said Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations of the prime minister’s latest remarks. “There’s a reservoir of anti Americanism in Turkey and this is going back to the well.” He added, however, that despite frustration with Mr Erdogan Washington still sought co-operation with Turkey because of the country’s strategic importance.
“The US doesn’t want to be the story; it believes it can work with Turkey on a variety of issues and we are essentially going to turn the other cheek when Erdogan turns up the heat.”
The prime minister’s depiction of the corruption investigation, which has seen more than 50 people detained, as a conspiracy against his government, echoes his rhetoric over this summer’s mass protests over his rule, initially sparked by concerns over the fate of Istanbul’s Gezi Park. “We will give this dirty game away as we did during Gezi,” he said on Saturday.
However, many of Mr Erdogan’s supporters, and a large number of outside observers, link the investigation specifically to the movement of Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic cleric whose followers are widely thought to have extensive influence within the Turkish police and prosecutors service.
In a sign of the intensification of the crisis, Mr Gulen issued his most bitter attack on the government on Friday night, cursing those who were seeking to halt the probe.
“Those who don’t see the thief but go after those trying to catch the thief, who don’t see the murder but try to defame others by accusing innocent people – let God bring fire to their houses, ruin their homes,” Mr Gulen said in a video released on the internet.
Mr Gulen’s lawyer has denied that the 72-year old has any connection with the investigation, as have members of the Gulenist movement. But Mr Gulen said there was an effort to “finish off” his movement – Mr Erdogan has removed or reassigned dozens of police, including national police chiefs and the Istanbul police chief. “The issue is about the public’s rights,” Mr Gulen added. “If public property is being robbed, you cannot somehow soften this, by either regulations or demagogy and dialectics.”
According to widespread reports in the Turkish media, police have found $4.5m in a shoebox belonging to of one of the targets of the investigation – Mr Aslan, the Halkbank chief executive.
Photos purportedly from the investigation have also been leaked to the Turkish press showing what appear to be very large cash transactions, and in the case of Baris Guler, the son of the interior minister, large piles of cash in his house.
Halkbank has not responded to Financial Times requests for comment. But Egemen Bagis, Turkey’s EU minister, one of four ministers reportedly targeted by the investigation, denounced in a written statement what he said was “irresponsible reporting . . . completely based on misleading and speculative information.” He said claims against him were “part of an outrageous conspiracy.” Mr Bagis, like the other ministers, has parliamentary immunity.
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